Feels great to be back in the office on a purple Friday, but I must say I thoroughly enjoyed watching NFL RedZone last Sunday with practically nothing on the line. Seems like the bye week came at exactly the right time for a variety of reasons and we’ll return to the field fresh and refocused. I’m not going to harp on the Jets game and only had a few takeaways; our D was incredible, our O stinks vs Rex Ryan’s defense, and Baltimore LOVES to get rowdy for Sunday Night Football at the Bank. Strange game all around so let’s move on to the task at hand.
I feel as though we are playing Houston at exactly the right time. We’re home after a bye week and the numbers are certainly in our favor. Dating back to 1980, the home team has won 59% of the games, and teams coming off bye weeks hold a 53% edge. Also, the Texans just suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Raiders and have some key injuries on both sides of the ball. But forget the numbers, we’re simply a better team and here’s why, let’s get into it…
Getting Healthy: The Ravens have been plagued by injuries so far in the 2011 season, thankfully the phrase “Next Man Up” has successfully been applied. Harbaugh gave the team an entire week off and it may have worked as six players returned to practice Wednesday albeit as limited participants. Ben Grubs, Lee Evans, David Reed, Tommy Z, Haruki Nakamura and Dannell Ellerbe all practiced and will consider making this week their comeback. Jimmy Smith (ankle) and cornerback Chris Carr (thigh) still remain out which isn’t necessarily a problem. Neither player would likely be an immediate starter and if time will allow them to make a full recovery, rest may prove beneficial as we make a run late in the season. I’m patiently awaiting the injury report and think we’ll take great strides to renew our depth.
Exploiting Lack of Health: I typically want to play the best of the best so there’s no asterisk on a W, but I will certainly sleep better Saturday night with Andre Johnson doubtful (ankle) and Mario Williams (torn pectoral) on IR. Andre Johnson is a 5 time pro bowler off to a good start in 2011, notching 25 catches for 352 yards and one TD. This certainly isn’t his only impact. Every defensive coordinator in the country game plans around him with double coverage schemes to force other players to beat them. Assuming he’ll rest with two divisional games against the Titans and Jaguars coming up, our depleted CB position can key in on stopping their other weapons.
Mario Williams took a lot of flack after being taken number 1 in 2006 but has been a great pass rusher for the Texans. This year, he’s amassed 11 tackles and leads the team with five sacks. A similar mantra applies to Williams as well. Teams constantly shift backs to the left and keep tight ends to chip Williams off the line, so his absence will provide more time for Flacco and not limit what we do. Rookie D-End Brooks Reed from Arizona is a second round pick that will be rushing off the edge but certainly should not disrupt our offensive rhythm.
Foster, Arian for Dangerous: Arian Foster is a beast and has a good story to accompany his production on the field. Undrafted in 2009, he spent a full year on the practice squad and when opportunity knocked, he answered. Foster led the NFL last year, rushing for 1,616 total yards and 18 touchdowns, and is looking to get back on track in 2011. A hamstring hindered him the first two weeks, but in the last three games he’s averaged 4.1 yards on 62 carries and helped lead Houston to the fifth best rushing attack. This is where we’ll see the real impact of Johnson’s injury. If we can pull safeties from deep coverage responsibility to stack the box, his production will certainly be limited facing seven and eight man fronts. Arian Foster certainly is not the only weapon but if we take him out of the equation, I don’t see the Texans putting up big points.
Where We Attack: Enough about them, lets focus on what we need to do. The addition of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator has been successful for the Texans and they are not the laughing stock they once were. He’s improved the worst pass defense and currently ranks 6th in that category, but let’s dive into those numbers. So far, the Texans have faced the Steelers, Dolphins, Colts and Raiders. Not a single QB on those teams is a known gun slinger that consistently moves the ball, and this is where we attack. The loss of Mario Williams will certainly deplete the pass rush and give Flacco time to survey the field. I expect a healthy dose of Ray Rice to open up the passing lanes and big games out of Boldin and our TE’s.
All in all, I think we are playing the Houston Texans at the perfect time and have the team to beat them. With their division, a 9-7 record may be good enough to win and host a playoff game, so this might not be their only trip to Baltimore this year. If we come out flat footed after a week off, this game could come down to the wire, but if we focus on what we need to do I project a 28-20 victory. See you at lot J.
