What a game last week… or should I say what a 4th quarter. Houston certainly proved they are going to be a worthy adversary to the rest of the league and need to be taken seriously, with or without Andre Johnson. Also in a weak division, if they can win and lock up a home playoff game there’s certainly a chance we may see them again. But it did feel good to get the W in that fashion. It’s my contention that truly great teams are not always truly great every quarter of every game, and I love how there’s always something more we can do. Look at the Patriots run in 2008. They concluded the season playing the NY Giants straight up and not resting any of their players. They ultimately got the win but showed their true colors to a team that countered their weaknesses in the Super Bowl. This Ravens team has something new every week that we can work on and once we’re firing on all cylinders…dare I say Festivus Maximus?
Enough about that, because we do have a game Monday night that certainly requires our attention. The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled the last few years to get any traction and to me are the leading candidates to end up in LA. Jack Del’Rio is bent over, legs spread, pants around his ankles, on the head coaching chopping block, but that does not mean they can be overlooked. This is a 1-5 club that gave the Steelers all they wanted last week and beat a Titan club that dominated us. We need to continuously improve in every facet of the game because we’re far from flawless but should return to Baltimore as victors. Let’s get into it…
Injuries: The injury report this week will be very important but was too similar to last week’s for my liking. Jimmy Smith returned to limited practice from his high ankle sprain yet a specific return date is not foreseeable. Lee Evans, Anthony Allen and Dannell Ellerbe were all out Wednesday and look like they will be out for MNF. Ben Grubbs is who I’m most worried about, not because he’s necessarily the best player with an injury rather his position has been most notably exploited. We’ve played teams that are not the defensive juggernauts in the league but Flacco has taken way too many hits. This is extremely important because I’m not very confident in our insurance policy under center. That being said, my position remains unchanged; if resting players now will ensure their full health down the stretch then let them rest. Hard to debate, but I’m starting to get tired of saying that about the same guys.
Monday Night Football: A few things scare me about this game being on Monday night. I’ve always heard rumors and speculation in betting circles to take the underdog no matter what. I looked this up and there was a prevalent trend through the 70’s and 80’s where odds makers would slightly tighten margins strictly because of the prime time audience. Also, last week I cited the home team in the NFL has a roughly 59% edge in the win column. Statistics show that increases slightly to 61% when teams are playing on Monday night. I guess fans get rowdier and more inspiring blowing off steam after a work day, but the numbers don’t lie. I don’t think that will have as much of an affect, because I heard this game could get blacked out in Jacksonville, but still I’m less than comfortable with the timing of this trap game.
Focus on the Foe: Enough fluff, let’s queue in on what we specifically need to do. The Jaguars have surrendered 115 YPG on the ground, good enough for 19th in the league, while their pass D is much better, currently ranked 8th. If I’m Cam Cameron, I’m licking my chops with the opportunity to unleash a balanced arsenal on national TV. With no clear weakness, I expect the usual suspects to have strong games with a dank dose of Ricky Williams and Ray Rice, allowing Joe to peanut butter the ball around to his receivers.
The Blaine Gabbert experiment has been OK for the Jags as he’s thrown a TD in the last four games since being named starter. However, under the helm of first year QB, Jacksonville is 31st in points per game and last in the league in total yards. A simple solution comes to light; STOP MJD. He’s averaging 4.8 on 118 carries and is always a threat to break tackles to spring a long run. If we can stack the box and maintain gap integrity, I’ll take Blaine Gabbert vs the Ravens D eight days a week.
Everything out on the table, we should win this game in dominating fashion. The 1-5 Jags should be no match for the Ravens any time, any day, any venue. But, if we overlook them and get caught up in the hype of MNF, this could be a fight on national TV. My prediction: Ravens 24 Jags 10
