Let’s start by appreciating the stellar performance in St. Louis last week. Our offense amassed the most yards in the history of the Ravens, and our defense was the dominating force they have the ability to be. Granted the Rams are a long way from making an impact on this league and looked like a deer in the headlights, but we inspired a lot of fear with this statement.
The Jets should be a different animal. They boast a 2-1 record with a disappointing loss on the road in Oakland where they were dominated on the ground, similar to when we laid an egg in Tennessee. Their true identity has yet to be seen and Sunday night will be a great test. The homecoming for Rex Ryan and several players has been a media outlet’s dream, and this match up has spawned into a notable rivalry in the NFL, but talk is cheap when we black it out at the Bank. Let’s get into it…
Jets Run D: I’ve heard all week how Ray Rice has to be licking his chops with a chance to run on the 2nd worst run defense in the league, but unlike all other news reporters I didn’t flunk high school statistics and choose not to sip this Kool-Aid. Three games is far too small a sample size to determine a team’s strength when the numbers are largely skewed by two long runs surrendered last week in Oakland. After week 2, the Jets were the 5th best in the league at stopping the run after facing MJD in Jacksonville and Dallas’ dynamic offense. That does not mean I don’t expect us to run the ball, but Rex has made his name on strong defense, specifically against the run, and he’ll be able to fix things on this side of the ball. I hope to see a very balanced diet of Ray Rice both taking hand offs and check down passes from Flacco. He’s gained over 400 yards from scrimmage and we signed Vontae Leech for one thing, to open huge holes. I think this will be a platform we use to achieve victory but can not rely solely on the run because of the numbers the Raiders put up last week.
Under Center: Nick Mangold has been a consistent starter for the Jets, yet I do not believe the perennial pro-bowler will suit up this week as he recovers from an ankle injury. This opens all sorts of possibilities for Chuck Pagano as he looks to exploit a hole in the middle. Ray Lewis isn’t the blitzing machine he once was, but when he does make it to the QB it’s usually through the A gap on a delay which can be hard for O-Lineman to identify. That’s a real shame because our nose tackle is arguably the best in the business. The loss of Mangold is like not even giving the levees a chance to break before the Haloti Ngata storm comes through. This will not only shut off running lanes up the middle but also collapse the pocket denying Sanchez room to step up to make throws down field, which takes me to my next point.
Throw Mark Throw: The Ravens currently have the 6th best pass rush in the league, notching 9 sacks thus far in the 2011 season. If/when we are able to stop the run Sunday night, this will force the Jets to pass which plays to our strengths for several reasons. Mark Sanchez is not very good. In games where Sanchez has more than 30 attempts, the Jets are a mere 10-10. This also gives our pass rushers time to be effective. QB’s around the league will acknowledge how effective pressure off the edge can be, but they cherish the ability to step up in the pocket. If Ngata and Cody can get a good push up the middle, Terrell Suggs and Cory Redding should turn in a great performance against New York’s very average tackles.
Ex-Steelers: My biggest fear of this game is our depleted secondary vs Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. The pair only have a collective 3 TDs and 258 yards but are proven big time receivers that historically play great in Baltimore. Regardless of what you might think, the loss of Dominique Foxworth hurts us. I was always a proponent of starting him on the PUP and not having him for the season is concerning. Jimmy Smith and Haruki Nakamura will also be missed for their respective bump and run coverage and presence in nickel schemes. Our secondary has been average thus far this season and this will be a great indicator of where we stand and how far we can go. I think the biggest safety blanket for this group will be our ability to get to the quarterback and force Sanchez into bad decisions.
After the first three weeks of feeling out the league and each team searching for their true identity, a real force will be born in the AFC after this game. The Jets have our old defensive coordinator and a plethora of ex-Ravens, and Sunday night has been touted as Big Brother Baltimore vs the Little Bro Jets. This has all the makings of a great game and I expect a close one, with the Ravens emerging victorious 20-17.
